📄 79 — Scenario Planning
Definition
Developing multiple plausible future scenarios to improve preparedness and adaptability.
When to Use
• Long‑term planning • Uncertain environments • Strategic decisions • Market forecasting
How It Improves Reasoning
It reduces reliance on a single forecast and improves resilience.
Steps
- Identify key uncertainties.
- Develop multiple scenarios.
- Test strategies against each.
- Choose robust options.
Example
A company plans for high growth, moderate growth, and recession scenarios.
Prompts
• “Create multiple scenarios for this decision.” • “Which strategy is robust across scenarios?”