📄 05 — Bayesian Updating
Definition
Update beliefs as new evidence arrives.
When to Use
• Monitoring systems • Diagnostics • Iterative decisions
How It Improves Reasoning
Prevents outdated assumptions.
Steps
- Establish prior belief.
- Gather evidence.
- Update belief proportionally.
Example
If solar output is lower than expected, update your model of shading.
Prompts
• “Update the prior belief given this new evidence.”