📄 04 — Probabilistic Thinking
Definition
Reason in terms of likelihoods instead of certainties.
When to Use
• Forecasting • Risk decisions • Ambiguous data
How It Improves Reasoning
Reduces overconfidence and binary thinking.
Steps
- Estimate probabilities.
- Compare scenarios.
- Choose the highest‑expected‑value path.
Example
“Rain tomorrow” becomes “40% chance of rain; plan accordingly.”
Prompts
• “Give a probabilistic breakdown of outcomes.”