Core Evidence Pack (Research-Anchored Mental Models)

These models are prioritized because there is empirical and cross-domain support for their impact on decision quality, calibration, and error reduction.

Calibration & Uncertainty

• Probabilistic Thinking
• Expected Value
• Bayesian Updating
• Gradient of Certainty

Complex Systems & Dynamics

• Systems Thinking
• Feedback Loops
• Non-Linearity
• Sensitivity to Initial Conditions

Debiasing & Meta-Reasoning

• Meta-Cognition
• Assumption Surfacing
• Confirmation Bias
• Availability Bias
• Anchoring

Structured Analytic Techniques

• Pre-Mortem Analysis
• Red Teaming
• Scenario Planning
• Worst-Case Bounding

Decision Architecture

• Constraints Analysis
• Constraints-First Planning
• Checklists for High-Stakes Decisions
• OODA Loop