📄 27 — Availability Bias
Definition
Overestimating the importance of information that is recent, vivid, or easy to recall.
When to Use
• Risk assessment • Decision‑making • Forecasting • Evaluating evidence
How It Improves Reasoning
It helps you correct for distorted perceptions caused by memorable events.
Steps
- Identify the memorable event influencing judgment.
- Compare with base rates or broader data.
- Adjust perception accordingly.
Example
After hearing about a plane crash, people overestimate the danger of flying.
Prompts
• “Identify availability bias in this reasoning.” • “Compare this perception with base rates.”